Paul WitwerApril 27, 2023

The PSH 2023 Illustrated Mock Draft

Paul WitwerApril 27, 2023

This is a ‘what I would do’ mock draft. I have no clue what NFL teams will actually do.

1. CJ Stroud - Quarterback | Ohio State

6’3” | 214 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Matt Stafford/Jared Goff

I’m not buying the smokescreen about the Panthers being enamored with Bryce Young after moving up to the first pick. CJ Stroud and Young graded out very similarly and I am going to take the quarterback with a more prototypical size. Stroud is an elite passer from the pocket and does a great job of layering throws on all levels of the field. His biggest detraction is that he is not creative enough as a passer. After looking at the Georgia game in 2022 where Stroud often escaped pressure and made throws from outside the structure of the offense, I am convinced that is the version of Stroud we will see in the NFL.

2. Bryce Young - Quarterback | Alabama

5’10” | 204 | Junior | 21

Shades of: Drew Brees/Russell Wilson

I think the smoke about the Texans not taking a quarterback at pick-two is also just chatter at this point. Bryce Young is an outlier prospect in terms of measurables and is in the 1st percentile of size metrics. He weighed in at 204 lbs at the combine but I don’t think that will be his playing weight in the NFL. Despite the size concerns, Young’s other attributes as a quarterback more than make up for his smaller size. Young is the best creator and pocket manipulator of all the quarterbacks coming out of college this year. While Young doesn’t have ‘great’ arm strength, his arm is more than enough to make NFL-level throws and often makes jaw-dropping throws from inside and outside the pocket.

3. Will Anderson - Edge Defender | Alabama

6’4” | 253 lbs. | Junior | 21

Shades of: Khalil Mack

I think the Cardinals will try to move out of this pick to get more draft capital, however, because I don’t do trades in this mock draft, I have the Cardinals drafting Will Anderson, who is one of the most complete prospects in this year’s draft and a position of need for the Cardinals. Anderson has the ideal size and athletic profile for an edge defender in the NFL. He is an elite run defender who has no problem setting the edge and diagnosing running plays. A lot of his sack production came from stunts and simulated pressures, but that was more a ‘fault’ of the Alabama scheme than Anderson not being able to rush off the edge. Anderson is great at using his power and hands to beat offensive tackles with a variety of moves, but can still improve as a pass rusher.

4. Will Levis - Quarterback | Kentucky

6’4” | 229 lbs. | Senior | 23

Shades of: Ryan Tannehill/Kirk Cousins

Will Levis struggled after returning to school in 2022. Some draft evaluators will say, “throw out the 2022 and just watch the 2021 tape,” however, that would not be a fair evaluation. That being said, Levis played through a lot of injuries this season behind an awful offensive line with below-average skill players and a new offensive scheme. Regardless of the injuries, Levis still put some good things on tape while running for his life most of the time. Levis has great size and a howitzer for an arm and will step onto the field in the NFL being able to make every throw. Levis has the most “NFL-like” throwing motion and he can escape the pocket to make throws on the run. While Levis is a good athlete, he is stiff in his lower body throwing mechanics which often leads to inaccurate throws.

5. Anthony Richardson - Quarterback | Florida

6’4” | 244 lbs. | RS Sophmore | 21

Shades of: Colin Kapernick/Cam Newton

Anthony Richardson is a tantalizing quarterback prospect and athlete. He has the best athletic profile for a quarterback to go to the NFL Combine and is a 99th percentile athlete. Despite only having 13 starts under his belt, Richardson showed a lot of polish as a passer throwing on the run and creating outside of the scheme. The reason Richardson is the last quarterback of the ‘big four’ to come off the board, is that Richardson often made the easy things look hard and the hard things look easy. He often looks more uncomfortable throwing from the pocket where he has to think about drops and timing than he does when he is on the move, however, the talk of him being a ‘huge project’ is overblown. One or two seasons under Geno Smith with NFL practices will help Richardson be more comfortable while operating in structure more often.

6. Devon Witherspoon - Cornerback | Illinois

6’0” | 181 lbs. | Junior | 22

Shades of: Jaire Alexander

Absolute Dog. Devon Witherspoon plays with attitude and his tape is some of the most fun in the entire draft. On top of being a fun watch, he is an explosive, tough and smooth athlete who can easily fit into any scheme or position in the defensive backfield. After the Lions traded Okudah to the Falcons, they essentially telegraphed they would take a corner with this pick, and Witherspoon is the best fit for this team at this spot in the draft. The Lions like to play an aggressive style of press man and that is where Witherspoon excels.

7. Christian Gonzalez -Cornerback | Oregon

6’1” | 197 lbs. | RS Sophmore | 20

Shades of: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

The Raiders defensive backfield depth chart is difficult to look at and they clearly struggled in that area last season. In a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, the Raiders desperately need to improve their pass coverage. Christian Gonzalez is an incredibly fluid athlete for a cornerback his size. On top of being fluid, Gonzalez was graded as an elite athlete as well with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.95. His 4.38 40-yard dash time shows up on tap with his elite recovery ability even after being beaten on a route initially, which did not happen often. Gonzalez did not have a ton of ball production, but he showed the ability to track the ball while it’s in the air and contest passes before the ball gets to the receiver. He is better in man coverage than zone coverage, but in his limited snaps playing zone, he showed a decent ability to diagnose and recognize route concepts.

8. Bijan Robinson - Running back | Texas

5’11” | 215 lbs. | Junior | 21

Shades of: Edgerrin James

Bijan Robinson is arguably the best overall player in the draft, but because the NFL does not value the running back position, he drops in Atlanta’s lap. Atlanta is very public about not wanting to trade up for a quarterback in this year’s draft or getting in on the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes. Instead, Atlanta will start Desmond Ridder, who they took in the third round last year, and try to surround him with as much elite talent as possible. Robinson is the best running back prospect to come out of the draft in at least five years with elite explosiveness and agility. His excellent vision and foot speed helps him find holes in wide zone and inside zone schemes. He also has soft hands for a running back and has the capability to run an advanced route tree from the backfield or split out wide. Robinson is a perfect fit for Arthur Smith’s scheme and can carry the majority of the load while the team decides if Ridder can be a starting-caliber quarterback moving forward.

9. Jalen Carter - Defensive Lineman | Georgia

6’3” | 314 lbs. | Junior | 22

Shades of: Fletcher Cox

Jalen Carter is powerful and quick as a pass rusher tallying 66 pressures over the past two seasons while helping carry the Georgia defense that won two national championships. Carter can line up at multiple positions along the defensive line using a rare combination of lateral quickness to keep opposing offensive linemen off balance. On top of being a top-tier pass rusher, Carter is a great run defender who plays with leverage even against frequent double teams. Carter is a perfect fit for the Matt Eceflus defense that requires a dominant 3-tech defensive lineman who can absorb and defeat double teams. Carter could have gone earlier in the draft but there are some off-the-field concerns.

10. Nolan Smith - Edge Defender | Georgia

6’2” | 238 lbs. | Senior | 22

Shades of: Haason Reddick

Nolan Smith is an explosive and bendy undersized pass rusher who in 38 career games had 110 tackles and 12.5 sacks. Before a torn pec knocked Smith out for the season, he had three sacks and 19 pressures in eight games in 2022. Because of Smith’s size, he is able to rush with an incredibly fast first step and can flatten the pocket, get low and dip under blocks. Despite Smith’s size concerns, he does a great job of holding up at the point of attack in the run game and getting off blocks to pursue runners who bounce outside. Even though Smith showed flashes of what he could be in the NFL his productions was lack luster and often got stalemated by bigger and longer offensive linemen. Smith will be a rotational pass rusher for the Eagles to start his career and give an immediate impact on third downs.

11. Peter Skoronski - Offensive Lineman | Northwestern

6’4” | 313 lbs. | Junior | 21

Shades of Rashawn Slater/Zach Martin

Peter Skoronski is the most polished offensive lineman in the draft with experience playing Offensive tackle, guard and center. Skoronski has great feet and balance and often beats edge rushers to their spots to stop them on first contact. The only problem is he will likely have to play guard at the next level because his arm length at 32 1/4 inches which is far below the ideal arm length for the position. Regardless of arm length, Tennessee needs linemen and Skornoski is the most NFL-ready along the front five.

12. Tyree Wilson - Edge Defender | Texas Tech

6’6” | 271 lbs. | Senior | 22

Shades of: Jadeveon Clowney

Tyree Wilson has incredible power as a pass rusher and pairs it well with a relentless motor to seek the football in the running game. There are multiple instances in his film where Wilson catches up to the running back from behind the line of scrimmage by using his length and explosiveness. His 35 5/8-inch arms give him an advantage over almost any tackle in the NFL and knows how to use his length to punch and push linemen to compress the pocket. The Texans had one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL last season and Wilson can step in day one and be an immediate contributor.

13. Paris Johnson Jr. - Offensive Tackle | Ohio State

6’6” | 313 lbs. | Junior | 21

Shades of: Laremy Tunsil

Paris Johnson Jr. is the most athletically gifted tackle prospect in this year’s draft. Unlike Skoronski, Johnson has the ideal length and size to play tackle with 36 1/8-inch arms. Johnson has light feet and natural movement skills. He can cut off rush lanes and has the agility to recover if he is beaten on a counter. He does a great job of mirroring rushers and can anchor if he is bull-rushed. When the Packers decide to move on from Bahktiari, Johnson will step in and take that role as Jordan Love's blind-side protector.

14. Jaxson Smith-Njigba - Wide Reciever | Ohio State

6’1” | 196 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Julian Edelman

Jaxson Smith-Njigba is the best and most complete wide receiver in this year’s draft and is in a class of his own. Despite only playing in the slot at Ohio State and not being the fastest, Smith-Njigba is the best separator and pure pass catcher in the draft. He is an elite route-runner who knows how to set up defenders in man coverage and manipulate space against zone coverage. Even though he did not play much in 2022 because of a hamstring injury, Smith-Njigba out-produced future first-round receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson who were all a part of Ohio State’s offense in 2021. New England desperately needs wide receivers to help a struggling offense led by Mac Jones.

15. Darnell Wright - Offensive Tackle | Tennessee

6’5” | 333 lbs | Senior | 21

Shades of: DJ Fluker

Darnell Wright is an offensive tackle who uses his size and power to overcome some athletic limitations. In the running game, he is a bulldozer who can move well in space despite being heavier. His tape against Will Anderson Jr. of Alabama, whom he virtually shut down, is what everyone points to when talking about his potential. The Jets like larger tackle prospects who move well, which is why they drafted Becton two years ago. With an aging Duane Brown, Wright can slot in nicely at right tackle from day one.

16. Dalton Kincaid - Tight End | Utah

6’4” | 246 lbs | Senior | 23

Shades of: Travis Kelce

The Commanders usually draft defensive linemen or skill positions in the first round, so I have them selecting another offensive weapon for Sam Howell. Dalton Kincaid is the best tight end in a historically great tight end. He possesses elite separation skills and catches the ball with ease. Much like my pro comparison Travis Kelce, Kincaid also runs routes like a receiver and can dip his hips and move well in tight space to create separation, especially against zone coverage. Kincaid is a willing blocker who puts his body on the line despite needing a good amount of work to be considered an elite run blocker.

17. Broderick Jones - Offensive Tackle | Georgia

6’5” | 311 lbs | RS Sophmore | 21

Shades of: D’Brickashaw Ferguson

It took everything in my power to not give the Steelers Joey Porter Jr. at this spot, however, their offensive line is not very good and tackles are flying off the board fast. Jones is an ultra-athletic tackle prospect with the size, length and potential to develop into a long-time starter on the left side of the offensive line. He is still a little raw in his pass sets and will need some time to develop, but he possesses all the tools to reach his potential with the right coaching. He works best out in space in the running game on wide zone running plays. In the passing game, he does a good job of mirroring rushers and is nimble enough to recover when he is beaten.

18. Quentin Johnston - Wide Reciever | TCU

6’3” | 208 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Martavis Bryant/Alshon Jeffery

Quintin Johnston did not run or do agility drills at the combine but had a 40.5” vertical jump with an 11’2” broad jump, which is … very good. When he did run at his pro day he clocked in at a decent 4.53 40-yard dash time. Unfortunately, his three-cone time was well below average and it is something that shows up on tape, however, the Lions aren’t drafting him to run complex routes from the slot. Johnston is a true X-receiver whose early career will look a lot like D.K. Metcalf’s first few seasons. He is excellent at running after the catch and will often bounce off tackles and does well turning away from defenders after the catch. He needs to do better in contested catch situations and use his hands to catch rather than using his body.

19. Anton Harrison - Offensive Tackle | Oklahoma

6’4” | 315 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Dion Dawkins

The Buccaneers are clearly in a rebuild with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask as their starting quarterbacks. Unfortunately, they also have a good enough roster to compete for a playoff spot in an awful division. With really only one need, I have the Buccaneers making a slight reach to grab the last good tackle prospect before the talent drops off a cliff in the later rounds. Anton Harrison has a decent size for the position with average athleticism. He does a good job of masking his weaknesses, by focusing on what he does well by using his length to his advantage. He is patient in pass protection and does a good job of not over-extending and beating rushers to a spot. He can start at left tackle and allow Tristan Wirfs to remain at right tackle.

20. Lukas Van Ness - Edge Defender | Iowa

6’5” | 272 lbs | RS Sophmore | 21

Shades of: Trey Hendrickson

Lukas Van Ness did not start in college, but that was not about his talent and it was more about Iowa’s weird rules about only letting upperclassmen start. Van Ness was clearly Iowa’s best player and would have started on any other team, but because he did not, there is much less film on him than almost any other prospect in the first round. Luckily for Van Ness, he is a freak athlete who ran a 4.58 40-yard dash, 7.02-second three-cone drill and a 9’10” broad jump at 272 lbs at the combine. Currently, Van Ness is not a very polished rusher who really only uses his bull rush, but it doesn’t matter because he is bigger, faster and stronger than everyone else.

21. Zay Flowers - Wide Reciever | Boston College

5’9” | 182 lbs | Senior | 22

Shades of: Steve Smith Sr.

The Chargers have the slowest receiving core in the NFL, and it is not particularly close. They also have a supercomputer with a cannon for an arm playing quarterback in Justin Herbert who loves to uncork throws down the field. Zay Flowers is a perfect fit for this offense that desperately needs some speed and diversity in their receiving core. Flowers is smaller in stature, but he plays like a much larger receiver who will often win contested catches and attack the ball in the air. Most of the time, however, Flowers is running past defenders with his explosive acceleration and attacking demeanor.

22. Joey Porter Jr. - Cornerback | Penn State

6’3” | 193 lbs | RS Junior | 22

Shades of: Amani Oruwariye/Joey Porter Sr.

The NFL loves players who are bloodline prospects, but on top of that, Porter Jr. is a clear top cornerback prospect who excels in press coverage. He is a physical and long corner who does an excellent job of controlling and rerouting receivers during routes and closes space at the catch point. He isn’t the best in off-coverage because he struggles to transition and change directions, but is still good enough of an athlete to play in zone coverage. The Ravens need corner help and struggled when they had health problems at the position last season.

23. Bryan Breese - Defensive Tackle | Clemson

6’6” | 298 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Harrison Phillips

The Vikings are still in a position to compete for the NFC North after the departure of Aaron Rodgers from the Packers. However, since Mike Zimmer was relieved of his duties the Vikings defense struggled immensely against the run and the pass. Bryan Breese brings immediate help in the running game as a burly and athletic player with a relentless motor. Breese does a great job anchoring against double teams, but doesn’t posses the right technique to get into the backfield and make tackles for a loss. If he can stay healthy, Breese can transform from just a run defender into a plus pass rusher in the NFL.

24. Deonte Banks - Cornerback | Maryland

6’0” | 197 lbs | RS Junior | 22

Shades of: James Bradberry

Deonte Banks was a late riser in the NFL draft community. After his ridiculous combine performance highlighted by a blazing faster 4.35-second 40-yard dash, more evaluators started to watch his tape that showcased his elite athleticism. He possesses the desired size and strength to play outside, but because of his athleticism, he could move to nickel in a pinch. He moves smoothly and glides around the field allowing his quick hips to help him match the release of the receiver he is across from. Banks struggles when his back is turned to the football and needs to work on route anticipation rather than just relying on instinct and athleticism. After releasing James Bradberry as a cap causality, the Giants will slot Banks into Bradberry’s role.

25. Brian Branch - Defensiveback | Alabama

6’0” | 190 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Micah Hyde

Brian Branch is one of the smartest football players in this years draft and is a sure tackler from the nickel position. While I do not hink he would be suited for a single-high safety role, I do think he could excel as a split safety. Despite his versatility and football smarts, he has average to below average athleticism, which could harm him in the NFL. Regardless, the Jaguars desperately need another corner/safety in the middle of the field who understands route concepts and can make sure tackles.

26. Michael Mayer - Tight End | Notre Dame

6’5” | 249 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Jason Witten

This is probably my favorite fit for a prospect in the first round. It was unfortunate that Dak Prescott only got to play with an old Jason Witten who was good for about three catches a game. Michael Mayer is a carbon copy of young Witten and Dak will love him. While Mayer isn’t an elite athlete, he gets just enough separation on his routes and catches everything in sight. He is a polished route runner who will be a chain-moving monster. Mayer is also a good run blocker with great technique for a college prospect. Dak loves throwing to tight ends and Mayer will be the best one he’s ever had.

27. Myles Murphy - Edge Defender | Clemson

6’5” | 268 lbs | Junior | 21

Shades of: Montez Sweat

Myles Murphy slides right into the Bills lap, not because he is a bottom-of-the-first-round talent, but because of how deep the edge rusher class is this year. Murphy is the ideal combination of size, speed and length for the NFL and has been consistently productive since his freshman year at Clemson. Murphy isn’t necessarily a ‘twitchy’ athlete but is an excellent speed rusher who uses his long arms and bend to get around offensive tackles. The problem is Murphy doesn’t have any diversity in his rush techniques. His film is speed rush after speed rush. Despite the lack of pass rush diversity, Murphy is still a plus run defender who does a good job of setting the edge, but can sometimes get caught in the backfield while the runner goes through his gap responsibility.

28. O’Cyrus Torrence - Offensive Guard | Florida

6’5” | 330 lbs | Junior | 23

Shades of: Damien Lewis

Now that the Bengals have their offensive weapons set, they are making a clear effort to not get their franchise quarterback not killed because of bad offensive line play. They signed Orlando Brown in free agency on a discount and made significant upgrades last season. Torrence has not given up a single sack in his time at Florida. He is a powerful guard who rarely gets beat despite playing in the SEC. When he gets his hands on a defender he never lets go and is nimble enough to almost always stay square despite athletic limitations. He will start day one for the Bengals and they will not look back.

29. Calijah Kancey - Defensive Tackle | Pitt

6’1” | 281 lbs | RS Junior | 22

Shades of: Grady Jarrett

Calijah Kancey is one of the more polarizing player in this years draft. He is an undersized penetrating defensive tackle from Pitt. Sound familiar (Aaron Donald, for those who don’t know)? The problem with comparing him to Donald is that it is impossible to compare anyone to him because he is a one of one player who changed once he got to the NFL. Regardless, Kancey is still a highly productive pocket disrupting tackle who wins with speed and leverage. At 281 lbs, however, he struggles against the run and gets washed out of running plays when bigger offensive linemen get their hands on him. The Saints desperately need pass rush help and will find a unique role for him until he can add on a little more weight.

30. Emmanuel Forbes - Cornerback | Mississippi State

6’1” | 166 lbs | Junior | 22

Shades of: Cam Dantzler

The Eagles can essentially do whatever they want in the draft this year because their roster has virtually no holes. So, I have the rich getting richer with them picking up Emmanuel Forbes here. Forbes is a long and fast corner who has a talent for creating turnovers and turning them into touchdowns, with six pick-sixes this past year. However, I am the same size as Forbes. Yes, me, the sports writer who sits at a computer all day. Despite his size, Forbes is a willing tackler in the run game and is great in all forms of coverage either press or off-ball. Because of his 4.35-40-yard dash speed, he has inside and outside versatility.

31. Will McDonald IV - Edge Defender | Iowa State

6’4” | 239 lbs | RS Senior | 23

Shades of: Yannick Ngakoue

Will McDonald is an explosive athlete will long arms and incredible bend. However, (and I hate to beat a dead horse here) he is an undersized edge rusher who will likely struggle early in his career defending the run. What he can do, though, is rush the passer with a variety of moves and rush angles. It’s difficult to know how he will translate to the NFL because like all Big-12 teams who want to stop spread offenses use undersized edge players on the interior, so he did not have a lot of pure pass rush reps from the outside. With the Chiefs releasing Frank Clark, they will need someone other than Chris Jones to rush the passer and McDonald will be able to do that at a high level from day one.

Paul Witwer