5 Things: Quarterback Quarantine
By: Paul Witwer
What makes a Quarterback great?
Passing statistics are a good measure for seeing how well a quarterback performed, but they don’t tell the full story. Not all statistics are created equal, and with so many statistics flying around, it is difficult to tell the good from the bad. Statistics lack context, the who, why, and how of the story. Judging a player purely off of statistical performance is like writing a review for a book, but only reading the end. The review would tell the reader how the story ends but would leave out important details and plot points as to why the story ended. The most tried and true method for context in football is “the eye test,” also known as an opinion. The opinion is a metric that has stood the test of time in football, but often they lack structure and substance. Context, without proper information and substance, can be refuted. Stats provide structure and substance to an opinion, which is why it is essential to combine the two when talking about players. The criteria I will be using to make this list are statistics and my “eye test” from the 2019 season and then projecting how each quarterback will preform in 2020-2021. I am purposefully leaving out career accomplishments on this list, or as I call it, the Tom Brady outlier.
This list is in alphabetical order.
Lamar Jackson
Passer Rating 113.3
Completion Percentage 66.1%, Yards Per Attempt 7.8, Touchdowns 36, Interceptions 6
What Makes Him Great
The phrase “dual-threat” in football is a quarterback who can throw the ball and can run when needed. Lamar Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback but turned to 11. During the draft process, there were rumblings that he should switch positions to running-back or receiver based on his athletic measurables. However, as a Heisman Trophy winner who played quarterback, it was a ridiculous assertion that he should try something else at the next level when he was already better than everyone else in college. Jackson is an elite athlete. NFL players are the one percent of athletes, and Jackson is the one percent of them. Coming out of his rookie season, where Jackson had accuracy struggles, he made a concerted effort to improve his accuracy; and the Ravens made the same effort to build a team around what Jackson does best. He came out of the gates firing on all cylinders, and in the first game of the season he torched the Dolphins throwing for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns. Throughout the game, the Dolphins dared Jackson to throw by stacking the box and having a single high safety virtually the whole game.
Jackson continued to show improvement with accuracy downfield and outside the numbers. In a week two game against the Arizona Cardinals, on 3rd & 11 with 3 minutes left in the game, Jackson threw a perfect ball to Marquise Brown on the far sideline in a crucial position to keep the ball away from the Cardinals offense. It’s the exact situation and throw that many of his critics said he would struggle with in the NFL. The rest of the 2019 season was Lamar Jackson’s revenge season. He fed off the chip on his shoulder, and anytime he found the opportunity to poke fun at his critics, he ran with it. He torched his opponents throwing and running the football, and the Ravens won an NFL’s best 14 games that year. The Ravens went into the playoffs with the number one overall seed and had home-field advantage throughout the playoffs behind Jackson’s MVP year.
Looking to 2020
The Ravens left the playoffs earlier than expected in 2019, losing to the Titans in the divisional round at home. Jackson did not have a great game, failing to find the end zone for most of the game; it didn’t help that their leading rusher, Mark Ingram III, was banged up for most of the game. The Ravens stayed pat for most of free agency but did a great job re-tooling their team in the the draft. with the 55th pick they selected running back J.K Dobbins who will add another dimension to the 2nd ranked offense from last season. Jackson is still a young player who, by all metrics, is getting better every year and is expanding his game.
Patrick Mahomes
Passer Rating 105.3
Completion Percentage 65.9%, Yards Per Attempt 8.3, Touchdowns 26, Interceptions 5
What Makes Him Great
Reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent. He has incredible arm strength, aestheticism, and a high football IQ, but the thing that separates him from other quarterbacks is his moxie. Mahomes is a gunslinger with supreme confidence in his abilities. More than any other quarterback, Mahomes reminds me of Brett Favre. Like Favre, Mahomes truly believes that he can make any throw; off-platform, sidearm, left-handed, jump throws, falling away, and therefore tries any throw. Unlike Brett, Mahomes knows when to pull in the reigns and take the safe throw instead of pressing his luck with risky throws. Even though his numbers may have dropped this year from last, he spent most of the year with a nagging knee injury and wasn’t healthy until the playoffs. During that playoff stretch, the Chiefs came back from a 21 point deficit in the divisional round, and Mahomes finished that game with a 134.6 passer rating. In the AFC championship game, Mahomes played another excellent game throwing for 3 touchdowns and had a passer rating of 120.4.
Facing the 49ers in the Super Bowl, Mahomes struggled early and forced some throws, causing 2 interceptions. Mahomes looked out of character for most of the game missing throws that he routinely completed during the season. The 49ers defensive front was unrelenting racking up 13 pressures and 4 sacks. Backed up on their own 35 facing a 3rd and 15 in a “must-have” situation, Mahomes delivered a spark his team desperately needed. Mahomes, knowing his receivers required time to get downfield, took a 20-yard drop, and waited for Tyreek Hill (10) to show open. Mahomes waited until the last possible second and launched a 60-yard pass downfield into the arms of Hill. Few quarterbacks in the history of the NFL would be capable of making this throw, and Mahomes makes it seem routine. This throw would propel the Chiefs comeback win in the final quarter of the Super bowl.
Looking to 2020
The Chiefs drafted running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire from LSU with the 32nd pick in the NFL draft, a move that was the big highlight of their offseason. Edwards-Helaire offers a different dynamic to their running game than what they had in the past, which will, in turn, dramatically help Mahomes in the passing game. Other than using the franchise tag on defensive tackle Chris Jones, the Chiefs did not make any splashy moves in free agency. The Cheifs are looking to stay under the salary cap as much as possible when they eventually sign Mahomes to a record-breaking contract extension. As long as Mahomes remains healthy for a full season, the Cheifs are favorites to repeat winning the Super bowl.
Aaron Rodgers
Passer Rating 95.4
Completion Percentage 62%, Yards Per Attempt 7.0, Touchdowns 26, Interceptions 4
What Makes Him Great
Rodgers is the oldest quarterback of this group. At 36, he often references being able to see “the 18th hole” of his career, however, being a 15-year veteran does have it’s advantages. Rodgers knows that he needs to play his best when it matters most. In 2019 the Packers installed a new system under first-year head coach Matt Lafleur, and it was the first time in Rodgers's career he changed systems. Halfway through the 2019 season, the Packers were 7-1 and Rodgers had whispers of winning a potential 3rd MVP award. After losing to the 49ers in week 11, the Packers offense struggled to consistently score points, and questions about the team’s legitimacy began to arise. Regardless of what many pundits thought of the Packers offense, they were 13-3 going into the playoffs with a first-round bye. In the divisional round against the Seahawks, with all of the critics watching and hoping for an upset, Rodgers showed them why he’s great.
In that game, Rodgers was a perfect six-for-six on passes 10+ yards down the field, and on third down, the Packers were 9 of 14 in converting in those situations. The Packers got out to an early lead against the Seahawks, but towards the end of the 4th quarter, the Seahawks closed the gap. Leading by 5 points, the Packers had to convert a long 3rd down situation in their territory. The Packers play-call was a double-slant pattern between Adams (17) and Kumerow (16) on the right side, but the slot corner for Seattle saw the formation earlier in the game and maintained inside leverage on Adams to disrupt the route. Rodgers saw this and gave Adams a signal that changes his route from a slant to an inside fade. The route takes time to develop, so Rodgers looked left initially to stall the safety and threw a perfect over the shoulder grab to Adams after he created some separation downfield. Calling an audible here is a gambit, but that’s what makes Rodgers great. With everything on the line: the season, his legacy, Superbowl expectations, Rodgers trusts his knowledge and his arm above all else.
Looking to 2020
The Packers had a relatively quiet off-season until they drafted Utah State quarterback Jordan Love with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. Many pundits criticized the move, especially considering the struggles the Packers had in other areas of their football team. Regardless, the Packers made a real shift in the style of football they intend to play in the future. The Packers spent the rest of their draft picks in 2020 drafting a running back, halfback/tight-end, and three interior offensive linemen, clearly shifting the offense to a “run first” approach. With the Packers looking to run the ball more, that means there will be fewer opportunities in the passing game for Rodgers, and I expect his numbers to take a hit from his earlier years. However, with most of the players remaining and having another year in the system, Rodgers and the Packers offense should be less clunky than in 2019.
Deshaun Watson
Passer Rating 98.0
Completion Percentage 67.3%, Yards Per Attempt 7.8, Touchdowns 26, Interceptions 12
What Makes Him Great
Watson is a magician, Houdini, more specifically; an escape artist. Wilson and Mahomes often get a lot of credit for mind-boggling plays that seem to defy physics, but Deshaun Watson should be in that same category. The Houston Texans won 10 games this past season, and most of those games they had no business winning if not for Watson’s magic. Throughout the season, Houston relied on Watson to win games in the 4th quarter, and in those situations, he thrived. In the 4th quarter of games that were within 7 points, also known as “clutch time,” Watson’s averages went up significantly. His yards per pass attempt were 9.8 yards, and his passer rating was 113.4. Meaning, Watson was throwing the ball further downfield and completing those throws at a higher percentage. Watson lives for these moments, and it often pays off for him and his team.
In the Wild card round against the Buffalo Bills, the Texans were down 13-0 going into half time against the second-ranked pass defense of Buffalo. Watson and the Texans tied the game at the end of the 4th quarter at 19-19, forcing overtime. After some back and forth between the two teams to start overtime, Watson had a drive that perfectly encapsulated his season. Watson was hit by a dump truck that would put most other quarterbacks in the hospital. This play wasn't the first time Watson spun away from a car crash like this. It was normal for him. This miraculous escape engineered the game-winning field goal for the Texans and won Watson his first career playoff game. Watson is used to winning though, after all, in college, he went to two national championship games and won it in 2016. Which is why Watson makes this list; he's a winner.
Looking to 2020
The Texans had a tumultuous offseason. They traded away Deandre Hopkins, who many consider a top 5 receiver in the NFL, and in return, they received the often hurt running-back David Johnson and a second-round pick. To supplement the loss of Hopkins, the Texans signed former Packer and Cowboy slot receiver Randall Cobb and traded for Brandon Cooks from the Rams. Many critics argue that these moves make the Texans a worse football team, and for the most part, I agree, but the reason Houston made these moves is because an elite quarterback can act as a band-aid for the rest of the roster. They feel like even though they traded away an elite player, Watson is so good they believe he can match his production from last year.
Russell Wilson
Passer Rating 106.3
Completion Percentage 66.1%, Yards Per Attempt 8.0, Touchdowns 31, Interceptions 5
What Makes Him Great
Russell Wilson is entering his 9th year in the NFL. Wilson is at the point in his career where he feels like a player who, simultaneously, is a 15-year vet and still on his rookie contract. Wilson is 31 and squarely in his prime and last year had a legitimate MVP case, but struggled in games down the stretch against the Ravens and Cardinals. Despite going to two Super Bowls and winning one early in his career, many argue that Wilson had his best season in 2019. Wilson’s career is at the point where he can carry a team deep into the playoffs even without having the best talent around him. In the 2019 playoffs, the three running backs Seattle had at the beginning of the season were all out because of injuries; it was so bad they had to bring Marshawn Lynch out of retirement to supplement. In playoff games against the Eagles and Packers, the Seahawks relied more on Wilson to make plays without a strong running game, which is something Wilson always had in the past, and he delivered throw after throw. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Wilson had an overall grade of 87.2 in the 2019 playoffs, which is the second-highest playoff grade of his career.
Wilson's veteran savvy was on full display against the Eagles in the Wild Card round. The Seahawks were great on 3rd down, converting mostly through the air. An early, but crucial 3rd & 11 shows the full array of awareness and talent Wilson offers. At this point in the game, the Seahawks struggled to get any yards on offense and had no success running the football. Without a running game, the Seahawks found themselves in an unfavorable situation.Wilson has to buy time and because of the distance from the first down marker, he has to wait for someone to uncover downfield if they want to convert. Malcolm Jenkins (27) comes up the middle on a delayed blitz and forces Wilson to escape. In a full sprint with Jenkins on his back, Wilson throws a dart to a covered receiver hitting him square in the chest to convert the down.
Looking To 2020
Even after posting the best statistics of his career, and leading the Seahawks to the playoffs with an injury-riddled roster, Wilson received zero votes for MVP in 2019. To my eyes, he was the second-best quarterback in the NFL last season and deserved consideration for MVP. I believe Wilson docked votes because his team relies more on running the football with running-backs in traditional formations and is, therefore, less flashy and explosive than other teams. Even though Jackson received all 50 votes for MVP, Wilson continued to cement his legacy in the NFL and will have another shot at winning the award next year.
Resources
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-divisional-round-pff-refocused-green-bay-packers-28-seattle-seahawks-23
https://www.nfl.com/players/deshaun-watson/stats/situational
